When creating the fall weather outlook, extensive research is conducted by analyzing months of forecast trends. This year presents a unique situation compared to previous fall seasons.
The focus this year is on the tropics! It was anticipated to be a significant year for tropical weather. However, the forecast has not been as impactful as expected so far. While there are not many complaints about this, the reasons behind it are evident: underwater volcanic activity warms ocean waters, influencing the air above. The increased water vapor keeps the atmosphere warmer than usual, which factors into our fall forecast.
September
September started on the dry side, similar to how August ended. Hurricane Francine did bring some much-needed rain to the area, but the dry trend is likely to persist until the end of the month. Temperatures have been pleasant so far, hinting at the arrival of fall. Despite the official start of fall on September 22, it seems like the summer feel will linger until the end of the month.
Compared to last year, September has been equally warm, with an expectation of above-normal temperatures. The presence of tropical activity could potentially alter this pattern.
In terms of rainfall, last year saw substantial precipitation during two major events at the end of the month. This year, Francine made a significant impact, but we are forecasted to receive below-normal rainfall for the month.
October
October represents the essence of fall, with sports, pumpkin spice, cool nights, and enjoyable days. Dry weekends are always appreciated during this wonderful time of year. This October has the potential to offer plenty of dry conditions for ideal weekend activities.
Overall, the trend for this year suggests dry weather. Unless the tropics become active, the outlook leans towards extended dry periods.
Temperatures might tell a different story. The warmer-than-normal trend is expected to continue in October, potentially leading to above-average temperatures. There could even be a day reaching 90 degrees during this period. The typical first freeze date is October 31, but it might be delayed until November due to the warmth persisting in October.
While the likelihood of an early snowfall in St. Louis on October 20 is low, October remains a transition month with the possibility of severe weather events.
Last October was warm, with several days experiencing temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above the norm, including a 90-degree day on October 3. This October is forecasted to be warmer than normal, possibly warmer than desired.
Rainfall was below average last year, with the major rain event followed by cooler temperatures at the end of the month. This year is also expected to be drier than usual, with a few chances of severe weather.
November
November is notoriously challenging to predict. Some years see the potential for snow, whereas others are mild and dry, much like last year.
This year, the forecast leans towards milder conditions. The overall trend indicates above-normal temperatures for the entire month.
External factors like tropical activity and solar cycles could alter this projection. Additionally, the influence of an uptick in solar activity might impact weather patterns. Precipitation trends are likely to remain on the drier side throughout November. Snow is expected to stay away this November before returning in the winter, adding complexity to future forecasts.
Last November had a chilly start but was predominantly mild, with an average temperature three degrees above normal. This November is projected to follow suit, leaning towards mild temperatures with a few cooler days foreshadowing the winter season.
Reflecting on last November’s dry conditions and lack of snow due to prevailing mild air, it is anticipated that this trend will persist, resulting in a primarily dry month.
